Is it a buyer’s or seller’s housing market? Zillow’s analysis for over 200 metro areas

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Zillow economists have developed an economic model called Zillow’s Market Heat Index, which measures the competitiveness of housing markets across the U.S. This model analyzes factors such as home price changes, inventory levels, days on market, and buyer demand to generate a score indicating whether a market is hot (favoring sellers) or cool (favoring buyers).

A higher score indicates a hotter metro-level housing market where sellers have more power. A lower score indicates a colder metro-level housing market where buyers have more power.

According to Zillow, a score of 70 or above indicates a strong seller’s market, 55 to 69 is a seller’s market, 44 to 55 is a neutral market, 28 to 44 is a buyer’s market, and a score of 27 or below is a strong buyer’s market.

Nationally, Zillow rates the U.S. housing market at a 50.

Click here to view an interactive version of the map below.

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Among the 200 largest metro area housing markets, these 10 are the hottest markets, where sellers have the most power:

1. Rochester, New York: 146
2. San Jose, California: 120
3. San Francisco, California: 91
4. Hartford, Connecticut: 83
5. Syracuse, New York: 81
6. Bridgeport, Connecticut: 76
7. Buffalo, New York: 75
8. Manchester, New Hampshire: 75
9. Boston, Massachusetts: 74
10. New York, New York: 73

And these are the 10 coldest markets, where buyers have the most power:

1. Beaumont, Texas: 9
2. Gulfport, Mississippi: 12
3. Macon, Georgia: 17
4. Brownsville, Texas: 21
5. Evansville, Indiana: 23
6. Kennewick, Washington: 23
7. Longview, Texas: 24
8. Lubbock, Texas: 26
9. Mobile, Alabama: 28
10. Cape Coral, Florida: 32

Does ResiClub agree with Zillow’s assessment? Directionally, I believe Zillow has correctly identified many regional housing markets where buyers have gained power—particularly around the Gulf—as well as markets where sellers have maintained their grip, including large portions of the Northeast and Southern California.

However, I believe Zillow’s model underestimates the strength sellers still hold across much of the Midwest. These two maps better illustrate my perspective on the current power dynamic. You can find my latest regional (metro and county-level) active inventory analysis here—and the latest regional (metro and county-level) home price analysis here.

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