Dive Brief:
- Cargo volumes at U.S. ports are expected to remain elevated for the next three months in the face of continued tariff pressure, according to the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
- Following a projected 6.1% year-over-year increase in February, volumes will increase 10.8% this month, with levels remaining elevated in April and May. U.S. ports tallied a 13.4% year-over-year hike in January, per the groups’ Global Port Tracker, which tracks loaded import volumes at the nation’s top ports.
- “Retailers are continuing to bring as much merchandise into the country ahead of rising tariffs as possible,” Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at NRF, said in a press release Monday.
Dive Insight:
President Donald Trump has already increased import taxes on goods from China by 20% while promising a start of reciprocal tariffs on April 2. These actions are the primary drivers of the frontloading by shippers, according to Gold, even amid last week’s back-and-forth on duties for Canada and Mexico imports.
“The on-again, off-again tariffs against Canada and Mexico won’t have a direct impact on port volumes because most of those goods move by truck or rail,” Gold said.
Last Tuesday, Trump lifted a monthlong pause on the 25% tariffs directed at Canada and Mexico he announced in February. He subsequently delayed the implementation of the duties for goods compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement two days later.
Beyond tariffs, another Trump administration initiative could alter import volumes at U.S. ports, according to the report. In February, the United States Trade Representative proposed the implementation of fees of up to $1.5 million for ships built in China docking at U.S. ports. The proposal is currently within a public comment period.
“Given that a significant portion of the global container fleet has been built in China, this means that there will be further costs that will be passed on to cargo owners and ultimately the consumer,” Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said in the release.
Should the USTR’s proposal be implemented, it could lead to increased use of larger vessels and shipment consolidation to avoid making multiple ports calls in the U.S., potentially reducing activity at smaller ports.
“Ports accommodated the surge in import volume in the final quarter of 2024 without major issues, but this will place additional pressure on the supply chain while also harming the nation’s smaller ports,” Hackett said.
Although imports are expected to increase in the near term, volumes are expected to decline for the first time since September 2023 in June and July. However, the decrease would be partially due to frontloading ahead of last fall’s East and Gulf Coast port strike, per the release.