A sweeping new wave of U.S. tariffs is threatening to derail the business models of ecommerce technology vendors, as analysts from Bank of America and Baird warn that the end of a key import loophole could sharply raise costs, disrupt supply chains, and trigger industry-wide budget cuts.
Announced on April 2 — dubbed “Liberation Day” by President Donald Trump — the new policy imposes a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, with additional duties targeting specific countries, including China and Taiwan. A major structural shift is the planned end of the de minimis exemption on May 2, which has allowed low-value goods under $800 to enter the U.S. with minimal customs scrutiny. According to Avalara, over 1 billion such packages — worth an estimated $55 billion — entered the U.S. last year, enabling fast-fashion and direct-to-consumer sellers to thrive on low-cost, cross-border shipping.
Which ecommerce tech vendors will tariffs hurt?
Bank of America Securities analysts led by Brad Sills warn that ecommerce software vendors like Shopify, BigCommerce, and Lightspeed Commerce are especially exposed. Shopify, with an average order size of $170 and 50% to 60% of gross merchandise volume (GMV) tied to U.S. customers, relies heavily on imports from China, which make up about 25% of its U.S. GMV.
Salesforce also faces risk through its Commerce Cloud, which accounts for 7.5% of its fiscal year 2025 subscription revenue. Adobe is less directly impacted. Its Magento platform comprises less than 1% of digital experience revenue. However, Band of America notes that Adobe’s broader creative business is indirectly tied to ecommerce growth.
Global-e Online is seen as relatively insulated, with just 1% of its GMV coming from China/Hong Kong to the U.S.
BofA also flagged larger tech firms like Microsoft, Oracle, Autodesk, ServiceNow, Workday, HubSpot, and Intuit, which generate 5–10% of revenue from manufacturing-related operations that tariffs could affect.
How tariffs play into earnings overall
Baird Equity Research issued a similarly stark warning. Analyst Colin Sebastian emphasized that the tariffs could lead to widespread earnings cuts, especially if they’re not part of a short-term negotiating strategy. Baird highlighted companies like Amazon, PayPal, and Wayfair as particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on global sourcing, international logistics, and cloud infrastructure.
“This is a major structural shift,” Sebastian wrote. “The advantage of low-cost imports is a key pillar of DTC and fast-fashion business models. Without it, pricing, margins, and consumer demand are all in flux.”
Baird added that companies are already making changes:
- Pulling back Q4 inventory orders
- Bracing for lower ad spending
- Planning headcount cuts
Digital advertising platforms — from Reddit and Pinterest to giants like Meta and Google — see a fallout from reduced retail marketing budgets.
“This isn’t a temporary headwind,” Sebastian concluded. “It’s a fundamental reset of how global ecommerce operates.”
Sign up
Sign up for a complimentary subscription to Digital Commerce 360 B2B News. It covers technology and business trends in the growing B2B ecommerce industry. Contact Mark Brohan, senior vice president of B2B and Market Research, at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @markbrohan. And follow us on LinkedIn, X (formerly Twitter), Facebook and YouTube.
Favorite