Ask one person; we’re already deep into a recession. Ask someone else; the economy’s fine—just don’t check your 401(k).
Truth is, whether we’re in a recession, heading toward one, or dodging it by a thread, many short-term rental investors are asking the same thing: What kind of STR market holds up when money gets tight?
Now, I’m not here to argue inflation stats or get political. That’s not my lane. What I am here to do is walk you through a few markets that are either tried-and-true mid-tier vacation gems or rising stars that are quickly earning their stripes, according to actual data, not hot takes. So, whether you’re already hosting or just shopping for your first property, this information helps you build something that lasts, whether we’re in a recession or not.
We use STR Data Expert, AirDNA, and Zillow’s median home pricing data to look further into these markets. AirDNA has a market score that ranks areas on several criteria to form a score from 1 to 100, with one being the lowest (Park City, UT) or 100 being the cream of the crop (Joshua Tree, CA). All data is shown up or down year over year.
What Makes a Market Recession-Proof for STRs?
Drive-to destinations near major cities
When people stop flying, they start driving. Locations one to four hours from large metros tend to thrive during economic dips. Think weekend getaways from Atlanta, Dallas, or Washington, D.C.
Low cost of entry
Lower home prices mean less debt and better cash-on-cash returns, which becomes even more critical when interest rates or lending tighten.
Consistent, year-round demand
Markets near national parks, college towns, or military bases stay busy regardless of season or economic conditions.
Diversified demand
Markets that attract both tourists and mid-term guests, like travel nurses, remote workers, or relocations, tend to outperform single-use vacation zones.
Top STR Markets to Consider if a Recession Hits
1. Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge, TN
AirDNA score: 89/100
Median home price (Zillow): $461,306 (? 5.9%)
STR data:
- Annual revenue: $71,600 (? 5%)
- Occupancy: 60% (? 5%)
- ADR: $361.59 (? 9%)
- RevPAR: $214.64 (? 4%)
Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge are classic recession-proof STR markets. The Smoky Mountains attract visitors year-round, and people will always find money for Dollywood, mountain views, and hot tubs.
The trick here? Avoid the middle:
- One-bedrooms earn around $42,000.
- One-to-four-bedrooms only rise to ~$50,000.
- However, four-to-eight bedrooms can earn $110,000+ with just a 2% occupancy dip in downturns, compared to higher dips in zero-to-four-bedroom places.
The bottom line: This market favors big family cabins or romantic one-bedroom getaways—nothing in between.
2. Broken Bow, OK
AirDNA score: 94/100
Median home price: $315,708 (? 5.9%)
STR data:
- Annual revenue: $67,600 (? 12%)
- Occupancy: 45% (? 5%)
- ADR: $439.35 (? 7%)
- RevPAR: $199.5 (? 1%)
Broken Bow continues to dominate with its proximity to Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Tulsa. It’s a luxury-cabin hotspot with relatively low home prices, making it a rare combo of high ADR and low acquisition cost. AirDNA has it highlighted as its only primary free market for users to get extra premium data on, so the cat may be out of the bag with this one.
Listings are up 8% year over year, which signals growth but also increased competition. Despite that, it remains a top pick for Texans, who represent four of the biggest STR feeder markets in the U.S. (Houston, San Antonio, Austin, and Dallas).
3. Red River Gorge, KY
AirDNA score: 97/100
Median home price (Stanton, KY): $167,000 (? 11%)
STR data:
- Annual revenue: $40,300 (? 3%)
- Occupancy: 50% (? 4 %)
- ADR: $245 (? 4 %)
- RevPAR: $121.7 (? 1%)
No STR in this region is expected to make over $100,000—but that’s the point. It’s a low-barrier, low-risk area where a well-designed $65,000-$75,000 annual revenue property can shine.
Red River Gorge is home to the Daniel Boone National Forest and Natural Bridge State Park, which hikers and climbers love. STRs here tend toward glamping, A-frames, and rustic-modern cabins.
Low competition, strong outdoor appeal, and year-round demand make this a smart play.
Here’s an example STR pulling $65K in revenue.
4. St. Petersburg, FL (non-luxury zones)
AirDNA score: 76/100
Median home price: $360,627 (? 3.8 %)
STR data:
- Annual revenue: $55,600 (? 9%)
- Occupancy: 65% (? 5%)
- ADR: $297 (? 7%)
- RevPAR: $193.6 (? 12%)
St. Pete has quietly become one of Florida’s most compelling Airbnb markets. With its walkable charm, art, beaches, and breweries, this city attracts strong ADRs, nearly $300 a night.
Occupancy stays steady even in shoulder seasons, and RevPAR (revenue per available room) growth is outpacing the rest of Florida. It’s a sweet spot for higher-end STRs without the Miami-level price tag.
5. Boone, NC
AirDNA score: 53/100
Median home price: $473,790 (? 3%)
STR data:
- Annual revenue: $44,300 (? 3%)
- ADR: $303 (? 5%)
- Occupancy: 47% (0%)
- RevPAR: $142 (? 5%)
Boone is a small college town in the Blue Ridge Mountains, home to Appalachian State University. It’s had a rough year—it was hit hard by a hurricane and saw an 11% drop in active listings, but it remains a top destination for in-state travel, hiking, and wellness retreats.
Its dual appeal as a tourist and mid-term housing market (thanks to the university) makes it worth watching. Pricing may dip temporarily, offering a substantial entry opportunity.
6. Luray, VA
AirDNA score: 95/100
Median home price: $284,530 (? 5.3%)
STR data:
- Annual revenue: $49,900 (? 5%)
- Occupancy: 50% (? 2%)
- ADR: $293 (? 5%)
- RevPAR: $143.86 (? 4%)
Nestled near Shenandoah National Park, Luray is ideal for glamping and unplugged cabin retreats. It’s just a few hours from Washington D.C., Richmond, and Virginia Beach, making it a key escape route for East Coasters. Listings have risen by 5% YoY in this area, but demand should keep pace with the nearby attractions.
7. Branson, MO
AirDNA score: 57/100
Median home price: $255,251 (? 3%)
STR data:
- Annual revenue: $40,500 (? 6%)
- Occupancy: 51% (? 1%)
- ADR: $248.35 (? 5%)
- RevPAR: $128.14 (? 6%)
Branson is often overlooked. It is a family-friendly Midwest staple with many theater shows, lake attractions, and a massive church/bus tour market. Listings surged 21% after Airbnb called it a top fall destination in 2023, positioning it as a Midwest destination to watch. Regulations have tightened here since the explosion, so do your due diligence in finding a location that works.
This isn’t a luxury destination—it’s about nostalgia and affordability. The ADR you can achieve varies, depending on the amenities and location you can provide. Hot tubs generate an average revenue of $33K/year, compared to pools, which create an average revenue of $22.8K/year.
8. Logan, OH (Hocking Hills)
AirDNA score: 99/100
Median home price: $237,362 (? 3.3%)
STR data:
- Annual revenue: $65,500 (? 7%)
- Occupancy: 53% (? 1%)
- ADR: $363.47 (? 6%)
- RevPAR: $194 (? 6%)
Logan is the gateway to Hocking Hills, one of the Midwest’s most picturesque, Instagram-worthy spots. This market has exploded with nature-first, design-forward stays like The Cliffs at Hocking Hills and different A-frame clusters. High ADR, low hotel competition, and a nature-driven guest base make it a top-tier glamping or modern cabin location.
Ensure your design stands out—this market rewards aesthetics and unique stays.
9. College towns (across the U.S.)
College towns are mid-term rental machines. During downturns, professors relocate, families visit, and football season fills weekends.
Flexible zoning in smaller towns sometimes allows STRs to pivot into mid-term stays (30+ days) with little friction, making these an excellent recession hedge.
10. Suburban STR-friendly pockets near major cities
- Austin: Dripping Springs, Bastrop
- Dallas: Granbury, Waco
- Atlanta: Blue Ridge, Helen
- Los Angeles: Big Bear, Idyllwild
These spots are ideal for families downsizing vacations but still wanting to escape the city. They usually allow STRs when the big city bans them, and demand stays solid from urban escapees.
Look for “Dual Threat” Properties
Want real recession protection? Then stop thinking about your short-term rental as a one-trick pony.
The most intelligent investors I know are buying dual-use properties: places that can crush it as a short-term rental but pivot seamlessly into mid-term housing if the market shifts. Think travel nurses, contractors, families between homes, or folks dealing with insurance claims. These guests don’t need a hot tub and a hammock—they need a clean, furnished space for 30+ days and will pay good money for it.
So, if tourism dips, your Airbnb doesn’t have to sit empty. You just switch gears, update your listing strategy, and keep the cash flowing. It’s like having a second safety net built into your property. That flexibility gives you room to breathe when people panic-list their homes on Zillow.
The bottom line: Dual-use properties give you options—which, in uncertain markets, are everything.
Final Thoughts
Look, I’d love a crystal ball, just like everyone else, to see exactly where the market’s headed and what the next 12 months will look like. But here’s what I know: Uncertainty tends to hit luxury STR markets the hardest (sorry, Breckenridge). When people tighten their budgets, those high-end vacation rentals are often the first to feel it.
But don’t get it twisted; those aren’t the only markets that can win. Domestic travel has a proven track record of staying strong, even in a downturn. So, instead of chasing flash, focus on fundamentals. Look for drive-to destinations near major cities, areas with built-in attractions (nature, culture, college towns, etc.), and properties that give you the flexibility to pivot: short-term, mid-term, or somewhere in between.
Recession-proofing your portfolio isn’t about playing defense. It’s about being smart with your offense.
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