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As the summer travel season gears up, affordability is a major priority this year, as economic uncertainties are causing Americans to tighten their vacation budgets, if they travel at all. Here are some of the travel trends we forecast:
Shorter, domestic trips will be more common than in recent years. Folks who are planning to visit foreign destinations are often delaying traveling until the off-season, when prices are cheaper.
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Only about half of Americans have trip plans for this summer, say several surveys, down notably from the past two summers, when travelers splurged on a collective post-pandemic travel surge. One-quarter of Americans aren’t planning a vacation this summer. The main reason, they say, is that they can’t afford one. Another quarter says they aren’t sure if they’ll travel at all this summer, up from less than 20% last year.
Most summer travelers will try to economize on their vacation expenses (91%, per one survey), such as choosing a hotel based on price vs. amenities and covering travel expenses using credit cards that offer them travel points and airline miles.
Still, the news isn’t all bad for those who do travel this summer: Airfares on domestic flights are down 5%-7%, and flights to foreign locales, including Europe, will be the cheapest in three years. Early June or mid-July will see the best deals, as prices will rise around the holidays: Memorial Day, Fourth of July and Labor Day.
Trends to watch out for
- Domestic locales are the dominant preference for summer vacations, as less than 25% of U.S. travelers are booking trips to international destinations. Among the most popular U.S. destinations: Orlando, New York City, Hawaii, Seattle, Boston, Las Vegas.
- Almost half of Americans plan to drive rather than fly for trips.
- Metros and regions that offer outdoor adventures are rising in popularity, like Santa Fe, New Mexico; the Rocky Mountains; Wilmington, North Carolina; and rural New England.
- If visiting a national park, plan on longer lines and more disruptions than usual, due to staff layoffs caused by the administration’s cost-cutting moves.
- Beach resorts are among the most popular international destinations, such as Cancún and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, with the Caribbean also in demand. London, Paris, Dublin, Italy, Japan and Thailand are also hot spots for U.S. tourists.
- Gas prices are on pace to hit a five-year low this summer ($3-$3.20 per gallon). But note: Geopolitics, including trade wars, could cause gas prices to spike.
- Car rental prices will be similar to last year. Ditto for hotel room rates. Vacation house costs in the U.S. this summer will also be on par with last summer.
Fewer foreigners, especially Canadians, will vacation in the U.S. this year, as anti-American sentiments are running high worldwide, fueling travel boycotts. The U.S. is on track to lose $12.5 billion in international visitor spending this year, a 22.5% decline compared with 2019, says the World Travel & Tourism Council.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.