Online sales will drive U.S. grocery sales growth through 2029, according to new data from Brick Meets Click.
Experts expect online grocery sales to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% over that time frame, according to data from Brick Meets Click. That would be more than five times the 1.7% CAGR for in-store grocery sales. Brick Meets Click also forecasts that online grocery sales will account for nearly a fifth (17%) of all grocery sales by the end of 2029.
The forecast comes after 2024 online grocery sales grew 9% year over year. It also comes as after April marked nine consecutive months during which online grocery sales reached at least $9.5 billion. Prior to the start of the streak, online grocery sales in a single month peaked one year earlier, in August 2023, reaching $9.3 billion.
David Bishop, partner at Brick Meets Click, said it’s important to keep in mind that Mass Merchants currently account for about half of online grocery sales. And Walmart alone (excluding Sam’s Club) currently accounts for about 40% of online grocery sales.
Online vs. in-store grocery sales growth through 2025
Brick Meets Click projects that online sales will account for nearly half of the grocery market’s total growth over the next five years. Specifically, it projects online grocery sales to contribute to about 40% of 2025’s growth and more than 50% in 2029.
Among the reasons Brick Meets Click forecasts a slowdown in sales growth is the Trump administration’s “adoption of a more restrictive immigration policy.” Similar immigration policies during Trump’s first term caused immigration to decrease at a CAGR of 9% for the first three years, Brick Meets Click said.
“Applying a similar rate through 2028 will impact the number of U.S. total households, and results in a 54-basis point (bps) drag on the 5-year eGrocery sales CAGR,” according to Brick Meets Click.
Another reason factored into the slowdown projection is that tariffs “can trigger rapid and significant shifts in buying behaviors due to higher prices.” Political uncertainty “makes it very difficult to predict” the impact tariffs will have on the grocery market. However, Brick Meets Click’s forecast includes an estimation that grocery-related inflation will be between 1.2% and 2.7% through 2029.
That forecast’s rates are for housekeeping supplies, pet products, personal care products, alcoholic beverages and tobacco and smoking products.
“Grocery retail has always been a dynamic business, but the rate of change over the last five plus years has disrupted shopping patterns, especially for Delivery and value formats, like Walmart, and that disruption is not disappearing anytime soon,” Bishop said in the statement. “Before the pandemic, eGrocery’s draw was largely about saving time, during the pandemic it was about protecting your health, and today it’s often more about saving money and time.”
Online grocery sales in May 2025
Although online grocery sales in May 2025 grew compared to May 2024, they fell short of April 2025’s total, according to Brick Meets Click data.
That ended a streak in which U.S. online grocery sales drew in at least $9.5 billion for every month going back to August 2024.
A consumer panel from data vendor Attain shows that 33% of those surveyed said they shopped less for groceries in May. Meanwhile, 45% reported no change in their grocery shopping behavior.
44% of respondents cite income stability as the most important factor influencing their overall spending, followed by rising prices (33%). Attain said those metrics have not changed compared to April.
Moreover, Attain data indicated that prices and promotions led as the biggest influence on grocery buying behavior (65% cited it). Quality and freshness came in second, with just 13% citing it.
Additionally, 40% of respondents said they plan to buy store brands and use coupons. More than a third (36%) said they shop across multiple stores to save money.
Although nearly half of Attain survey respondents (45%) said they don’t plan to make any changes to their grocery shopping behavior, 42% said they plan to spend less on groceries in the next three months.
Click here to read our latest update on online grocery sales.
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