What’s Happening: Richemont reports fiscal first-quarter results on July 16. The Swiss conglomerate, with its focus on jewellery rather than fashion, is expected to outshine its struggling peers.
Sparkling Results: High-end jewellery brands have been on a tear this year, lifted up by many of the same forces dragging the rest of the luxury industry down. Where many consumers are balking at sharply higher prices for handbags, they’ve accepted more modest hikes by jewellery brands. With economic and geopolitical uncertainty driving up gold prices, jewellery also feels like a sounder investment to some.
In the quarter ending in March, Richemont’s sales rose 11 percent, with big brands like Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels seeing strong demand even at higher prices. Removing Yoox Net-a-Porter from its books early in the quarter after finalising the e-tailer’s sale to Mytheresa is no doubt a relief.
Watch What Happens: One very big exception to the category’s upward trajectory are high-end watches. Sales are plunging, and watchmakers have raised prices to cushion the blow. That’s raising fears of a doom spiral, where a never-ending cycle of shrinking volumes and escalating costs relegate timepieces to a niche for ultra-wealthy collectors. President Donald Trump’s proposed 31 percent tariff on Swiss imports, due to go into effect Aug. 1, won’t help.
In its last fiscal year, sales by Richemont’s watch division, including Piaget and Vacheron Constantin, declined by 3 percent, to €3.8 billion ($4.5 billion). Notably this unit does not include Cartier, the second biggest watch seller after Rolex.
China Questions: Another headwind is China, where the rapid rise of homegrown luxury jewellery brands, particularly Laopu Gold, is presenting a challenge to Western competitors that have long dominated the high end of that market. Beijing-based Laopu’s rise coincides with a steep decline in sales by Richemont brands in China. It’s not hard to see why: Laopu offers premium-feeling jewellery, often drawing from traditional Chinese iconography, at lower prices than your typical Cartier bracelet or Van Cleef & Arpels necklace.
Let the Good Times Roll: In a recent report, HSBC noted there is probably room for both Laopu and Western jewellery brands in China, where most of the category’s sales are still made through unbranded retailers. Richemont is going to have to work hard to maintain its momentum. Still, you’d rather be them than most other luxury conglomerates right now.
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