Tariffs have spurred early back-to-school shopping in 2025, according to trends and insights from the National Retail Federation, Sensormatic Solutions, Deloitte and Adobe Analytics.
NRF data, which the organization released July 15, found that two-thirds of back-to-school shoppers (67%) had begun purchasing items in July. That’s up from 55% compared to 2024. It’s also the highest rate for early back-to-school shopping since the NRF started tracking that data in 2018. And just over half (51%) of families doing back-to-school shopping are doing so early explicitly due to concerns of rising prices as a result of tariffs, the NRF found.
“Consumers are being mindful of the potential impacts of tariffs and inflation on back-to-school items, and have turned to early shopping, discount stores and summer sales for savings on school essentials,” said Katherine Cullen, NRF vice president of industry and consumer insights, in a statement. “As shoppers look for the best deals on clothes, notebooks and other school-related items, retailers are highly focused on affordability and making the shopping experience as seamless as possible.”
Back-to-school shopping trends in 2025
Although NRF data suggests most consumers have gotten a head start on back-to-school shopping, the majority of them (84%) still have to make at least half of their purchases.
The three top reasons consumers haven’t finished back-to-school shopping yet:
- Waiting for the best deals (47%)
- Unsure what items they need (39%)
- Planning to spread out their budgets (24%)
NRF data also found most consumers preferred online shopping for school supplies (55% cited it). After that, the most popular destinations consumers chose were department stores (48%), discount stores (47%) and clothing stores (41%).
The most popular shopping destinations were similar for college students and their parents. Online was the most popular, at 48%. After that, the most popular were discount stores (36%), department stores (35%) and college bookstores (27%).
College students and their families plan to spend less, on average, this year than in 2024, NRF data shows.
“Although per person spending has decreased, on average, more consumers are shopping across almost every category,” according to the NRF. That brings its projected total back-to-college spending to $88.8 billion, up from $86.6 billion last year.
“This increase can largely be attributed to higher income households, while lower income households are pulling back across categories because of economic uncertainty,” said Phil Rist, executive vice president of strategy at Prosper Insights & Analytics, in a statement. “Regardless of income, families want to ensure their students are set up for success. They are cutting back in other areas, using buy now, pay later or buying used or refurbished items to have everything they need for the school year.”
Omnichannel back-to-school shopping
Survey data from Sensormatic Solutions, a retail consulting firm, found that 39% of consumers plan to complete their back-to-school shopping in August. That compares to 34%, a close second, for July, it said.
Nearly half of respondents cited concerns about product availability and supply chain disruptions as reasons for shopping earlier this year.
70% of consumers plan to shop in-store for back-to-school needs, according to Sensormatic. It found that consumers are more interested this year in buy online, pick up in store (BOPIS) than last year — 46% versus 42%. Additionally, BOPIS now outpaces consumer interest in home delivery (which 38% cited).
“High interest for in-store shopping and pickup options indicates consumers’ appreciation for the unique benefits brick-and-mortar retail has to offer, especially during peak traffic periods like the back-to-school shopping season,” said Grant Gustafson, head of retail consulting and analytics at Sensormatic Solutions, in a statement. “In-store and curbside pickup options present shoppers a chance to get the best of both worlds: the convenience that comes with online ordering and the immediacy of in-store visits. Retailers who prioritize flawless omnichannel execution this summer are likely to be customer favorites.”
How pricing factors in
Data from consultancy Deloitte’s annual back-to-school shopping survey indicates that parents are as focused as ever on budgets in 2025.
“They’re approaching their second-largest annual spending event with a note of restraint, given current economic and household financial positions,” Deloitte wrote. “Despite the uncertainty, parents appear confident they can replace clothing and refill backpacks by leaning on savvy shopping habits they’ve honed during the past few years of high prices.”
Nearly half of the consumers Deloitte surveyed said they planned to spend the most at Mass Merchant retailers this year (46%, versus 40% last year). Parents plan to shop across five retail formats, on average, for their back-to-school needs, with Mass Merchants and online retailers being the top destinations. 83% of consumers cited Mass Merchants as their top spots in 2025, which compares to 77% last year. Similarly, 68% cited online retailers, which compares to 65% in 2024.
They also planned to capitalize on July promotions (46%) and spread out expenses over a longer period of time. 61% plan to complete their spending by the end of July, which compares to 66% in 2024. 75% of back-to-school shoppers are also prepared to switch brands if their preferred option is too expensive (75%, versus 67% in 2024).
Prime Day bumps up back-to-school shopping in 2025
Amazon Prime Day sales could have sparked part of the pull forward in back-to-school shopping. To compete with Amazon, U.S. retailers offered their own discounts — especially online. Walmart Deals, Target Circle Week and other retailers’ promotions overlapped with Prime Day, mimicking holiday-season sales in the summer. Walmart’s Deals event included online sales for the first time. Meanwhile, Target explicitly leaned into the early back-to-school shopping trend for Circle Week 2025. Among other discounts, it offered:
- 20 supplies for under $20
- School items for under $5
- First-day-of-school outfits for $5
- Teacher essentials starting at $3.50
During the four-day period that Amazon held its summer 2025 Prime Day event, U.S. consumers spent more than $24 billion online, according to Adobe Analytics. In that time period, from July 8 to July 11, sales of school supplies increased 175% compared to average daily sales in June 2025, according to Adobe. That includes products such as backpacks, lunchboxes, binders, calculators and kids’ apparel.
Simultaneously, sales of dorm essentials grew 84%, Adobe said. Those items included microwaves, mini fridges, bedroom linens, mattresses, laundry and cleaning products, and storage products.
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