Bitcoin’s quiet rally has captured the attention of Wall Street and beyond, but some voices from OG Bitcoiners like American HODL are predicting that what we’ve witnessed so far is just the calm before an explosive storm.
The Bitcoin treasury bubble thesis
The Bitcoin treasury bubble thesis is that, within just a few years, a tidal wave of corporate, institutional, and possibly sovereign capital totaling as much as $11 trillion could flood into Bitcoin. Some projections suggest that true mania may not hit until 2026 or beyond, potentially sending the price as high as $1 million per coin.
Swan Bitcoin exchange unpacked this thesis, examining the signals, mechanics, and real-world examples supporting the case for a Bitcoin treasury bubble that could rival the wildest days of the dot-com boom. Let’s check it out.
A historic build-up: From $2.4T asset to corporate standard
This month, Bitcoin marked a new all-time high above $120,000, pushing its market cap to $2.4 trillion, trailing only behind Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and gold.
Yet, this move has come with little public awareness or euphoria. The price has stair-stepped higher in a quiet fashion, led not by retail speculation but by deliberate, low-profile corporate and institutional buying. As Swan pointed out:
“This is the least euphoric bull market we’ve ever seen… and that’s bullish.”
Public companies ranging from Strategy to Metaplanet, GameStop to Trump Media are accumulating Bitcoin on their balance sheets, and more novel models, such as those pioneered by Strive Asset Management, see companies converting cash reserves to Bitcoin, not for speculation but as an inflation hedge and long-term holding.
Weakening dollar, diminished safe havens
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently warned that if the U.S. can’t rein in ballooning debt, America might lose its stance as the world’s reserve asset. He said:
“I just don’t know if it’s going to be a crisis in six months or six years, and I’m hoping that we change both the trajectory of the debt and the ability of market makers to make markets. Unfortunately, it may be that we need that to wake us up.”
As of fiscal year 2025, U.S. debt interest payments are projected to reach $952 billion, and as the dollar loses luster, Bitcoin’s narrative as “digital gold” and a reserve asset strengthens.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink echoed Dimon’s concerns, saying:
“If the U.S. doesn’t get its debt under control, if deficits keep ballooning, America risks losing that position to digital assets like Bitcoin.”
The return of easy money
The bond market is pricing in interest rate cuts, suggesting a potential return to “easy money” conditions as early as 2026. Lower rates mean cheap capital, more risk-on sentiment, and historically, a surge in asset prices, including Bitcoin. As Swan observed:
“Bitcoin ran from $42K → $123K during the tightest monetary policy in modern history.
What happens when liquidity floods back in?”
Remember the lockdown era? When rate cuts during the COVID-19 pandemic spurred rally after rally across crypto markets, culminating in parabolic gains for Bitcoin? With another cycle of rate slashing potentially on the horizon, the setup looks eerily similar.
The Bitcoin treasury bubble mechanics
According to Swan, big buyers are still mostly on the sidelines, finalizing mergers and legal structures. Names like Nakamoto, Twenty One Capital, and Strive Asset Management have yet to fully deploy capital, but are preparing multi-billion-dollar mandates.
As coins are absorbed by corporate treasuries through algorithmic “drip-buying,” available supply dries up without dramatic price spikes.
When enough boardrooms and sovereigns hit “bid” at the same time, price action could turn “reflexive” where buying by one entity triggers more entities to chase Bitcoin, echoing the late-’90s scramble for “internet stories.”
Just like every dot-com needed an “internet story” to survive in 1999, every major firm may soon feel pressure to have a “Bitcoin strategy.” This “narrative contagion” can push prices to unimaginable heights (well beyond what fundamentals alone would suggest).
Where could this lead? $1M Bitcoin and beyond
American HODL, among others, sees a realistic path:
“I think the treasury company bubble can get dot-com level large. We could see a 3–4 year run that takes Bitcoin well beyond a million dollars.”
This isn’t isolated. BitMEX’s Arthur Hayes and long-term Bitcoin advocate Mark Moss also projected a $1,000,000 BTC by 2030.
So is it plausible that we’re seeing the opening moves of a bubble that could rival the dot-com era? The pieces are falling into place. Mania may yet be a year or two away, but if history rhymes, the blow-off top could take Bitcoin to levels few believed possible just a few years ago.