Could it be that Americans are heading into the holiday shopping season with confidence?
From faster delivery and cross-border buying to small business growth and AI-powered shopping tools, the coming Christmas season promises to be both bold and efficient — or at least that’s what I predict.
Near Instant Gratification
Fast, free delivery has become so common that consumers will pick up or receive at least 35% of orders placed in November and December within 24 hours.
I foresee a couple of factors driving speedy deliveries.
First, Amazon’s infrastructure prioritizes rapid delivery. In urban areas, Amazon delivers approximately 60% of Prime orders the next day. Rural delivery lowers the average, but Fulfillment by Amazon shipments will provide nearly instant shopping gratification.
Second, buy online, pick up in-store purchasing has grown rapidly and could soon represent 10% of U.S. ecommerce sales, according to Capital One Shopping.
Canadian-American Relations
Canadian shoppers are among the most active cross-border consumers worldwide. In a given year, about half of folks north of the border shop with a U.S. ecommerce business.
Holiday shopping has become a digital ritual — convenient and quiet.
Despite tariff disputes, I believe these shopping habits are both resilient and beneficial. Canadian buyers are accustomed to shopping at U.S. stores online owing to value and variety. And, the nations have been friends for too long to experience lasting trade disruptions.
With this in mind, expect at least 55% of Canadian shoppers to make at least one holiday purchase from U.S. ecommerce stores in 2025.
Small Business Growth
I expect small, independent online retailers will grow by approximately 10% in 2025, outperforming overall ecommerce performance and reaching roughly $15.5 billion in U.S. holiday revenue.
In comparison, Shopify merchants alone generated about $11.5 billion during the 2024 holiday peak sale period. Etsy sellers added about $2 billion.
The growth should come from small brands that sell craft or U.S.-made products.
AI Shopping
During the peak gift-giving season, at least 50% of North American shoppers will use artificial intelligence for shopping. Consumers will chat, search, seek recommendations, and even make purchases with the help of AI tools.
Last year, fewer than 15% of U.S. shoppers consulted AI for holiday gift giving, reportedly, but much has changed in a year. AI is present in nearly every tool, including Google.
Hence AI product discovery will likely be the top ecommerce traffic source in 2025.
Consumer Confidence
I was pessimistic last year about U.S. holiday ecommerce growth, and it showed in my failed predictions, listed below. If I am going to err this year, it will be on the side of being too optimistic.
The U.S. stock market has performed well of late. For example, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite index recently hit record highs. The driver for this boom may be trade optimism and solid corporate earnings.
I suspect this enthusiasm will carry over into holiday gift-giving in 2025. The key factor will be whether shoppers believe they can afford to spend.
Last Year’s Predictions
Since 2013 I have predicted ecommerce trends and sales for the coming holiday season. In 2024, I was incorrect in four of my five predictions, making last year’s forecasting my worst yet. Here are the embarrassing specifics.
Mobile commerce will represent 54% of holiday ecommerce sales: correct. Adobe reported that U.S. holiday sales on mobile devices reached $131.5 billion, accounting for 54.4% of the overall online total.
Ecommerce holiday sales grow 5% year-over-year: wrong. I was too pessimistic last year. I wrote that early holiday predictions, including one suggesting 23% growth in 2024, were “too optimistic, given the contentious U.S. election, inflation, and other economic woes.” Most sources put the actual growth at 8.7%.
Email volume grows 25% during the 2024 holiday season: wrong. This one was more difficult to measure, but nonetheless, I likely missed the mark. Global email volume grew about 4.3% year-over-year during the fourth quarter, according to multiple sources.
40% of Gen Zs use social commerce this holiday season: wrong. Most estimates place the actual number at 32% for Gen Zs (ages 13 to 28), while an estimated 12% of all U.S. consumers shopped social in 2024.
BNPL accounts for 9% of online holiday sales: wrong. About 7.7% of U.S. holiday purchases in November and December 2024 were buy-now, pay-later, representing $18.2 billion, per Adobe.