Global payments revenue is forecast to reach $2.4 trillion by 2029, but the industry is entering a period of slower growth and structural change, according to the Boston Consulting Group’s 23rd annual Global Payments Report.
The report shows payments revenue climbed to $1.9 trillion in 2024, after expanding 9% annually since 2019. According to the report, analysts expect growth to moderate to about 4% a year through 2029. BCG analysts say traditional revenue drivers are losing steam, while new forces — including agentic artificial intelligence (AI), digital currencies, and real-time account-to-account transfers — are reshaping industry economics.
BCG projects agentic AI will influence more than $1 trillion in ecommerce spending. Additionally, it projects 81% of U.S. consumers expecting to use AI shopping tools that could guide half of all online purchases in the near term. Meanwhile, stablecoin transaction volumes surged to $26 trillion in 2024, though just 1% involved real-world payments. BCG says programmable digital currencies could unlock new revenue streams for banks and nonbank providers if trust and regulatory frameworks develop.
How AI and cryptocurrencies will impact ecommerce payments
Latin America is expected to post the fastest growth, with annual payments revenue gains of 7.9% through 2029, followed by the Middle East and Africa at 6.8%. Mature markets will lag, with projected growth of 3.5% in Europe, 3.4% in North America, and 3.3% in Asia-Pacific. Real-time account-to-account payments are rising sharply, up 40% in 2025. They now make up about one-quarter of digital retail payments worldwide and already account for more than half of transactions in India and Brazil.
Payments-focused financial technology companies generated $176 billion in revenue in 2024 and are expanding at a 23% annual pace, three times faster than established players. Collectively, they now account for half of sector revenue after attracting more than $135 billion in equity funding over the past 25 years. At the same time, banks and processors face tighter deposit margins and pressure to cut costs.
“The next winners in payments won’t just be fast adopters of technology,” said Markus Ampenberger, BCG managing director and partner. “They will be the firms that deeply integrate new capabilities into business models and customer value propositions.”
BCG identifies five structural forces reshaping payments:
- Agentic AI
- Digital currencies
- Financial technology disruption
- Real-time transfers
- Cost transformation
“This is a turning point for the industry,” said Inderpreet Batra, BCG’s global head of payments and fintech. “The players that align to these shifts now will lead the next decade.”
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