Dive Brief:
- Amid a challenging economic backdrop, retail hiring during the seasonal holiday period could fall to its lowest point since 2009, according to a Wednesday report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas shared with Retail Dive.
- Challenger projects that retailers could hire fewer than 500,000 positions in the last three months of this year, which would be the smallest seasonal gain in 16 years.
- Muted hiring decisions in 2025 would build on 2024’s down year, which Challenger says saw a 4% year-over-year decrease with 543,100 jobs added in Q4.
Dive Insight:
Though many retailers have started debuting holiday initiatives, many have remained silent on hiring goals so far.
“Seasonal employers are facing a confluence of factors this year: tariffs loom, inflationary pressures linger, and many companies continue to rely on automation and permanent staff instead of large waves of seasonal hires,” Andy Challenger, senior vice president at Challenger, said in a statement. “While we could see a late hiring push if holiday sales surprise to the upside, the cautious pace of announcements so far suggests that companies are not betting on a big seasonal surge. This year may be more about doing more with less.”
Though mum’s the word for some retailers this year in terms of hiring goals, others have made announcements over the past few weeks. For example, Bath & Body Works and Target have made hiring-related announcements in recent weeks, though Target did not provide a specific number it aimed to bring on.
For Target, relying on existing employees remains a focus this season.
“It starts with the team that we have in stores today and offering more hours over the holiday period than we might offer throughout the rest of the season because those team members are prepared and ready,” Target Vice President of Experiential Store Operations Michael Scrafford told Retail Dive during a live event earlier this month. “We have an on-demand workforce around the country of 43,000 team members strong.”
In 2009, the retail industry hired just 495,800 seasonal employees in the Q4 period as the U.S. began to recover from the prior year’s economic collapse. Since then, seasonal hires have remained above 500,000, per Challenger’s data.
This year has presented retailers and consumers with a new set of macroeconomic pressures. Though shoppers are continuing to spend at some retailers, the impact of new (and seemingly ever-changing) global trade policies is beginning to increase costs for companies (such as Lululemon and mass retailer Walmart).