New York City agents, cross your fingers, knock on wood and say a prayer because the residential market might be headed for a solid end to the year.
Though typically one of the weakest periods, macroeconomic factors — namely lower mortgage rates — could prove fertile ground for a number of deals, particularly at the lower end of the market, said appraiser and data expert Jonathan Miller.
Metrics from last quarter might, at first glance, cast doubt on that theory. Though sales were up overall, the borough logged more activity at the higher end of the market, where buyers are less sensitive to mortgage rates and can often close deals in cash, Miller’s report showed.
During the period, co-op and condo sales backed by financing actually fell 9 percent year-over-year and accounted for only 35 percent of all deals for the property type.
However, Miller cautioned that the effect of a lower mortgage rate environment isn’t yet reflected in the data.
“Much of that drop in rates started a third or almost halfway into the quarter,” Miller said. “We didn’t have the full impact. That’ll spill over into and have more of an impact on sales next quarter.”
But Miller’s optimistic forecast comes with a big if. It hinges, in part, on mortgage rates falling further or holding steady at their current levels, which may or may not happen even if the central bank votes to lower the federal funds rate again.
An early look at deals likely to close next quarter does show signs of life, according to Miller’s monthly report.
New signed contracts in September rose modestly in Manhattan, up 1 percent from year-ago numbers. New listings hitting the market notched more significant growth, up more than 7 percent annually — an increase Miller attributed to sellers gaining confidence in a more affordable marketplace.
The story was similar in Brooklyn, where new signed contracts rose by 6 percent and new listings 7 percent.
However, much of the growth in each borough was still fueled by the luxury market, defined in Manhattan as deals above $4 million and above $2 million in Brooklyn.
But if mortgage rates continue on the current trend, that balance could shift in October.
Not so fast…
An Upper East Side couple is chasing a dream few in Manhattan achieve — a private pool. The rarified amenity isn’t coming easy.
Hedge funder Zachary Kurz and his wife, Brittany Morgan, whose family owns Morgan Properties, are renovating their double-wide home on East 77th Street, which they bought two years ago for $30 million, the New York Post reported.
Their plans include adding a pool to the basement, a pursuit their neighbors, an ophthalmologist and former dermatologist in their 70s, are strongly opposing.
The couple’s resistance could stand in the way of Kurz and Morgan achieving their vision, one that only a slice of New Yorkers have access to. A study published in Curbed in 2021 found a total of roughly 15,000 private pools citywide, a tally that includes pools in condo towers, hotels and in private backyards.
That number may look like a lot, but considering the Big Apple has more than 8 million residents and more than 3 million housing units, it’s a small piece of the pie. Even fewer of those pools are attached to single-family homes across the city. Mill Bergen Pools owner Bob Blanda estimates just 50 underground pools in townhouses in Manhattan, Blanda told the Post.
To build the pool, Kurz and Morgan need access to their neighbor’s property, and the couple has so far refused to grant it. Kurz and Morgan sued the couple in August, hoping a court might intervene and greenlight their plans, though their neighbors have since filed a counter lawsuit.
In their counterclaim, the neighbors allege the construction would infringe upon their property and cause “irreparable damage” to their health and home.
Kurz and Morgan’s “desire to have an underground swimming pool is causing enormous inconvenience to its directly adjacent neighbors,” the couple’s attorney wrote. “We implore your client to simply scale back its project.”
NYC Deal of the Week
The most expensive sale recorded in the city register this week was for a Greenwich Village townhouse sold by the founder of the company, Big Ass Solutions. J. Carey Smith, his wife, Nancy Smith and their son, Tristan Smith, sold their home at 11 West 12th Street for $26.5 million.
The couple purchased the five-story abode for just under $20 million in 2019 and listed it for $27 million earlier this year. The 25-foot-wide townhouse spans 9,700 square feet and has five bedrooms, six bathrooms, two terraces and a garage.
Douglas Elliman’s Mark Fromm and Claudia Saez-Fromm had the listing. Corcoran’s Dana Power brought the buyer, whose identity is shielded by an LLC.
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