China suspends ban on rare earth exports to the U.S., but licensing controls remain — vital semiconductor manufacturing materials get one-year reprieve
China has lifted its ban on exports of gallium, germanium, and antimony to the United States, temporarily halting restrictions that had reshaped global materials markets over the past year. The decision, effective November 9, comes as part of a broader de-escalation package reached by Presidents Xi and Trump during recent bilateral talks, and is currently set to expire on November 27, 2026.
While the suspension covers a wide range of materials, including certain graphite products and rare-earth technologies previously added to China’s export control list, it does not eliminate licensing requirements. Exporters must still secure government approval before shipping these materials abroad, preserving Beijing’s discretionary leverage over supply chains.
Gallium and germanium were the first high-tech metals targeted in China’s escalating tit-for-tat with the U.S. and EU over semiconductor controls. Gallium, essential in gallium arsenide (GaAs) and gallium nitride (GaN) production for power electronics and RF, saw sharp price spikes and a scramble for non-Chinese sources after restrictions took effect in August 2023.
Germanium, used in infrared optics, fiber, and silicon-germanium processes, followed soon after. Antimony, which serves both as a flame retardant and a compound semiconductor material, was added to China’s export control list soon after.
Together, these materials represent a key vulnerability in global electronics and photonics manufacturing. China accounted for 99% of global gallium supply in 2024, according to USGS figures, and remained the dominant producer of refined germanium and mined antimony. Though western nations have launched funding programs to onshore refining and restart dormant production sites, none are expected to scale within the next 12 months.
The pause is unlikely to fully reset pricing or restore confidence among buyers, but it provides near-term relief to sectors dependent on China for things like GaN power devices and high-frequency RF modules. Some enforcement friction will remain, especially if exporters face delays in receiving approvals.
Meanwhile, Western governments are still pursuing long-term supply diversification, though these efforts are likely years away from any meaningful output. For now, the year-long window gives manufacturers some breathing room. Whether it holds will depend on the political temperature between Washington and Beijing heading into 2026.
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