While the crypto derivatives market shows signs of stabilizing after October’s liquidation, Bitcoin’s slide below $99,000 suggests traders remain cautious and the recovery fragile.
It has been almost a month since the crypto market experienced one of its largest liquidation events in history, but the effects of that incident still linger.
A joint crypto derivatives report from the crypto exchange Bybit and the investment research institute Block Scholes has revealed that traders are cautiously finding stability. This defensive stance has spread across the derivatives market, affecting both crypto options and perpetual contracts.
Effects of Liquidation Event Linger
Bybit learnt that the notional open interest in perpetual contracts has remained stagnant below $10 billion since the massive liquidation event. Recall that renewed trade tensions between the United States and China triggered the market-wide decline. Bybit stated that the event had a significant impact on its perpetual swap markets, and traders are now showing little appetite to re-enter their previously lost positions.
The U.S. and Chinese governments made some diplomatic progress after the incident. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish tone during the following FOMC meeting sustained the bearish sentiment. Traders exhibited more risk-off reactions as bitcoin (BTC) plummeted to $107,000, and short-tenor put-call skews tilted sharply bearish.
Currently, bitcoin and ether (ETH) volatility skews in the options market have now reverted to downside bias after briefly favoring calls. Term structures for both assets have normalized, but at-the-market volatility is still elevated. This indicates sustained demand for optionality even as the current environment is historically known for low volatility.
Traders Take Defensive Stance
While open interest in the futures market remains flat, that of the options sector has steadily increased. Bitcoin open interest still accounts for roughly half, with the remaining spread across eight tracked altcoins. Although current market conditions reflect a lack of momentum and the decoupling of cryptocurrencies from the broader risk-on sentiment, options open interest levels mirror those seen before the liquidation event.
Furthermore, options open interest reflects a defensive stance and consistent demand from traders for short-term puts. Market participants are also hedging via options.
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“Traders have shown a willingness to push up short-tenor volatility during stress events, briefly inverting the curve. Though the inversion was short-lived, it left behind a higher baseline in volatility pricing, particularly concentrated in put options,” Bybit and Block Scholes explained.
Meanwhile, Bybit stated that BTC has been confined to the $105,000–$115,000 range. The asset fell below the range on Tuesday to $99,000. BTC was trading slightly above $101,800 at the time of writing, per data from CoinMarketCap.
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