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The stock market closes lower to start Nvidia week
Stocks opened lower and recovered briefly but slid through the afternoon to begin a big week on the earnings front.
At Monday’s closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.2% at 46,590, the broad-based S&P 500 had fallen 0.9% to 6,672, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was off 0.8% at 22,708.
Nvidia, meanwhile, shed 1.9%.
“The key to a turnaround in the situation,” says Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates, “will be Nvidia’s earnings this Wednesday. A positive surprise by NVDA and a recovery to new highs there, now down 12% from its all-time high, would re-energize the entire market.”
Navellier notes that major investors such as Softbank and Peter Thiel have sold their entire NVDA positions and have “put a chill on the shares.” He also cites “concerns about the circular financing agreements among the builders of the massive data center buildouts, which are the big buyers of Nvidia chips.”
But, if CEO Jensen Huang and his company report “strong beats and, more importantly, strong guidance, these concerns will be mitigated and the AI theme will be reaffirmed, leading the market higher.”
– David Dittman
Read more: Dow Falls 557 Points to Start NVDA Week: Stock Market Today
David Dittman
I am the former managing editor and chief investment strategist of Utility Forecaster and the former editorial director of Investing Daily, Charles Street Research, and Weiss Ratings. I am also a former stockbroker and have been working in financial media for more than 20 years.
Masayoshi Son and Peter Thiel unload Nvidia stock
Ahead of Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings report, some of the world’s top tech investors have unloaded their positions in the stock. SoftBank, which Masayoshi Son operates, recently sold its remaining 32 million-share stake, netting $5.8 billion.
Then, as mentioned, there is Peter Thiel, who is the cofounder of PayPal and an early investor in Facebook. His hedge fund, Thiel Macro LLC, unloaded its position in Nvidia stock for about $100 million.
Granted, in light of the company’s massive market cap, these transactions are relatively small. Besides, Son has had a spotty track record with Nvidia stock. In 2019, he sold a $3.9 billion position. Had he held on, that stake would currently be worth about $150 billion.
Regardless, Son has become a billionaire because of his savvy, high-conviction investments. His move away from Nvidia may not signal bearishness on AI at all — but rather his belief that even bigger opportunities now exist within the category.
– Tom Taulli
BofA Securities raises EPS estimates ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report
BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya raised his full-year earnings-per-share estimates for Nvidia ahead of the chipmaker’s upcoming earnings report.
For fiscal year 2026, Arya now expects the company to report earnings of $4.56 per share, up from his previous estimate of $4.45 per share. He also increased his EPS guidance for fiscal 2027 (to $7.02 from $6.26) and fiscal 2028 (to $9.15 from $8.03).
The analyst reiterated his Buy rating and $275 price target, representing implied upside of nearly 50% to current levels.
“NVDA is the only merchant chip supplier with proven full-stack, rack-scale execution in large AI clusters, first with Blackwell (GB200), then with Blackwell Ultra (GB300) and next year in Vera Rubin (VR),” we’ll likely have three generations of experience by the second half of calendar year 2026, says Arya.
He adds that cloud capex worries are often seasonal in nature – peaking in Q4 but easing at the start of the new year. And Nvidia is trading at an attractive valuation given its AI bellwether status and growth estimates.
Indeed, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said last month that the company has roughly $500 billion in total Blackwell and Rubin orders for this year and next – beating Wall Street’s expectations by 10% to 15% – so most concerns will be more macro in nature, focusing on a tougher financing environment and increased competition.
– Karee Venema
Peter Thiel’s hedge fund sells Nvidia
As a group, hedge funds were net buyers of Nvidia in Q3, but one notable fund sold its stake in the chipmaker.
Thiel Macro, which is the namesake fund of Palantir Technologies (PLTR) board chair Peter Thiel, exited its stake in Nvidia in the third quarter. The fund first bought NVDA in Q4 2024 and the AI stock accounted for 40% of the portfolio at the end of Q2.
Regulatory filings reveal that Peter Thiel’s hedge fund also sold off its entire stake in Vistra (VST), which provides energy for AI data centers, and slashed its stake in Tesla (TSLA) by 76%.
– Karee Venema
Hedge funds bought Nvidia stock in Q3
Nvidia shares outperformed the broader market in Q3, gaining 18.1% on a total return basis (price change plus dividends) vs the S&P 500’s 8.1% total return.
(Image credit: YCharts)
During this July 1 through September 30 time frame, hedge funds were were net buyers of Nvidia stock.
According to WhaleWisdom, 48 hedge funds initiated new NVDA positions over the three-month period and 316 increased their stakes. This compares to 33 hedge funds that closed out of their Nvidia stakes entirely and 342 that reduced their positions.
The net change in hedge fund share ownership amounted to 4.6 million shares.
Related: Best Blue Chip Stocks: 21 Hedge Fund Top Picks
Does Nvidia pay a dividend?
Nvidia pays a small quarterly dividend of 1 cent per share, which works out to 4 cents per share annually.
Based on the chipmaker’s current stock price, this works out to a dividend yield of 0.02%. By comparison, the S&P 500’s current dividend yield is 1.2%.
In fiscal 2025, Nvidia paid roughly $834 billion in dividends. It also bought back $33.7 billion in stock.
– Karee Venema
Related: The Kiplinger Dividend 15: Our Favorite Dividend-Paying Stocks
Firstrade’s Stephen Callahan: What investors will be watching in Nvidia’s earnings
Nvidia reports earnings on November 19, and Wall Street is looking for a 17% quarter-over-quarter increase in revenue to $54.9 billion and earnings of $1.25 per share (+19% from Q2).
According to Stephen Callahan, trading behavior analyst at Firstrade Securities, those numbers look about right. “While many expect the chipmaker to beat these estimates, I agree with these numbers,” he says.
Nvidia’s Blackwell chips are likely to see strong demand, especially with the growth in spending on AI infrastructure for data centers. “Long-term contracts with big clients have given the chipmaker a predictable revenue pipeline,” Callahan notes.
But risks remain. “The tense trade relations between the U.S. and China pose potential land mines for the company,” the analyst warns. “These include stricter regulations that could affect sales.”
And the growing chatter about an AI bubble could weigh on Nvidia stock.
As for what investors will watch most closely? “Strong revenue growth from the data center sector” tops the list, along with guidance on future demand, China sales, profit margins and supply chain stability.
– Tom Taulli
What time is Nvidia’s earnings release?
Nvidia will release its fiscal third-quarter earnings report after the stock market closes on Wednesday, November 19. The results typically come through around 4:20 pm to 4:30 pm Eastern Standard Time.
The release of Nvidia’s earnings report will be followed by a conference call, which will begin at 5 pm EST.
Nvidia earnings: Harbinger of an AI bubble or proof the boom is real?
Ahead of Nvidia’s earnings this week, Wall Street is worried that there’s an AI bubble. In recent weeks, the sector has suffered from a spike in volatility.
According to Neil Azous, portfolio manager of Strategy Shares’ Monopoly ETF (MPLY), the concerns may be overblown.
“For those worried about ‘bubble’ talk, the stock is already down heading into earnings, and historically every dip in Nvidia has proven profitable. The asymmetry — one day or seven days after earnings — has favored the upside. Betting against the most important company in the world, with the resources it has, has generally been a losing trade. Taken together, these factors could alleviate many current concerns,” says Azous.
Brian Stutland, portfolio manager of the Rational Equity Armor Fund and the Catalyst Nasdaq-100 Hedged Equity Fund, agrees.
“The key is whether Nvidia continues hitting the targets analysts expect. Its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is around 31, which isn’t extreme. This isn’t like the late-’90s tech bubble, when major players traded at forward P/Es of 40 or 45,” says Stutland.
He adds that Nvidia’s valuation is reasonable and the company’s growth helps justify it. “I’m not convinced we’re at the tail end of a bubble. It would likely take a major catalyst to push the market significantly higher than expected, followed by a shakeout. As long as Nvidia delivers clarity through earnings and meets its growth targets, the higher multiples are justified, though there will still be volatility along the way.”
Regardless, Nvidia is the clear bellwether. And even if there are a few small cracks in its growth story, it seems likely that the talk about the AI bubble will not go away.
– Tom Taulli
Tom Taulli
Tom Taulli has been developing software since the 1980s. He sold his applications to a variety of publications. In college, he started his first company, which focused on the development of e-learning systems. He would go on to create other companies as well, including Hypermart.net that was sold to InfoSpace in 1996. Along the way, Tom has written columns for online publications such as Bloomberg, Forbes, Barron’s and Kiplinger. He has also written a variety of books, including Artificial Intelligence Basics: A Non-Technical Introduction.
Can Nvidia earnings reignite the AI flame?
That’s the question Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, is asking.
“For the first time in several quarters, Nvidia enters earnings with sentiment under pressure. Shares have softened on concerns of an AI bubble and the reality that China sales are unlikely to rebound soon.”
However, Britzman says the overarching picture for Nvidia “remains strong” and he believes third-quarter revenue will come in near the top end of guidance, “at around $55 billion – and scope for an upside surprise.”
He believes market participants will be watching fourth-quarter guidance and any color for the year ahead.
“CEO Jensen Huang recently flagged $500 billion worth of orders on the books, and investors will be keen for clarity on timing, which could imply material upside to current forecasts. With plenty of nervousness in the air, strong results from Nvidia could be the perfect catalyst to reignite the AI flame,” says Britzman.
– Karee Venema
Nvidia stock opens lower to start earnings week
Nvidia stock opened lower Monday morning, down 0.9% at last check. The chip stock is down more than 7% for the month to date, but has still gained nearly 42% since the start of the year.
This comes as the broader equities market trades cautiously higher at the start of the week, with the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.04%, the broader S&P 500 0.1% higher and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite enjoying a 0.2% lead.
– Karee Venema
Karee Venema
With over a decade of experience writing about the stock market, Karee Venema is the senior investing editor at Kiplinger.com. She joined the publication in April 2021, and oversees a wide range of investing coverage, including content focused on equities, fixed income, mutual funds, ETFs, macroeconomics and more.