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Zillow economists just published their updated 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. home prices—as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index—will rise 2% between November 2025 and November 2026.
Heading into 2025, Zillow’s 12-month forecast for U.S. home prices was +2.6%. However, many housing markets across the country softened faster than expected, prompting Zillow to issue several downward revisions. By April 2025, Zillow had cut its 12-month national home price outlook to -1.7%.
In the second half of this year, Zillow began upgrading its forecast. In August, it revised its 12-month outlook to +0.4%. In September, the forecast increased to +1.2%, and in October Zillow upgraded its 12-month national home price forecast to +1.9%. In November, Zillow slightly downgraded its 12-month outlook to +1.5%. This month, however, Zillow revised its 12-month outlook for U.S. home price growth back up, just a tad, to +2%.
While Zillow’s national home price forecast is no longer negative—it isn’t exactly bullish either. It’s calling for a soft national housing market in 2026, one where national housing affordability may improve slightly as U.S. income growth outpaces U.S. home price growth.
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Among the 300 largest U.S. metro-area housing markets, Zillow expects the biggest home price increase from November 2025 to November 2026 to occur in these 15 metros:
- Atlantic City, New Jersey → +5.9%
- Rockford, Illinois → +5.6%
- Knoxville, Tennessee → +5.1%
- Concord, New Hampshire → +5.1%
- Green Bay, Wisconsin → +5%
- Saginaw, Michigan → +4.9%
- New Haven, Connecticut → +4.7%
- Appleton, Wisconsin → +4.7%
- Wausau, Wisconsin → +4.7%
- Fayetteville, Arkansas → +4.6%
- Jacksonville, North Carolina → +4.6%
- Kingston, New York → +4.6%
- Janesville, Wisconsin → +4.6%
- Bangor, Maine → +4.6%
- Morristown, Tennessee → +4.6%
Among the 300 largest U.S. metro-area housing markets, Zillow expects the biggest home price decline from November 2025 to November 2026 to occur in these 15 metros:
- Houma, Louisiana → -7.0%
- Lake Charles, Louisiana → -6%
- New Orleans → -4.1%
- Shreveport, Louisiana → -3.1%
- Lafayette, Louisiana → -3%
- Alexandria, Louisiana → -2.4%
- Beaumont, Texas → -2.3%
- Austin → -2.2%
- Chico, California → -2%
- Punta Gorda, Florida → -2%
- Monroe, Louisiana → -1.9%
- San Francisco → -1.6%
- Odessa, Texas → -1.5%
- Corpus Christi, Texas → -1.3%
- Santa Rosa, California → -1.1%
U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, are currently up 0.01% year over year. If Zillow’s latest 12-month outlook (+2%) comes to fruition, it would represent a small acceleration nationally.
Below is what the current year-over-year rate of home price growth looks like for single-family and condo home prices. The Sunbelt, in particular Southwest Florida, is currently the epicenter of housing market weakness right now.
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“With supply no longer as tight as it was during the pandemic, price gains are likely to stay modest. Buyers should see a bit more time and leverage when they shop, while sellers can still build equity, just at a slower pace than in past boom years,” wrote Zillow economists in a report published on Monday.
Zillow economists added: “Looking ahead, Zillow projects sales will strengthen in 2026 as mortgage rates trend lower and affordability improves. Existing home sales are forecast to reach 4.3 million next year, a 5.2% year‑over‑year gain. After two slow years, the recovery is expected to be led by the Southeast and West, where demand is more rate‑sensitive and is starting to rebound as borrowing costs ease.”