Rising trade tensions and the threat of sweeping new tariff policies are putting pressure the retail and ecommerce sectors, with new analysis from PitchBook warning of broad cost inflation, softening consumer demand, and a tougher deal-making environment for investors.
A 125% tariff on Chinese imports currently under discussion could dramatically disrupt supply chains for categories like gaming hardware, electronics, sporting goods, and toys, according to PitchBook’s recent Emerging Tech Research report. Companies that rely on discretionary purchases are particularly exposed, the report said.
“Consumer pullback disproportionately affects nonessential categories,” PitchBook senior analyst Eric Bellomo wrote, “leading to softer demand forecasts, longer sales cycles, and heightened sensitivity to pricing and margin compression.”
Tariff policies pressure ecommerce businesses
Even large-scale shifts in sourcing — such as moving production from China to Vietnam — have provided limited insulation. While Nintendo, for example, has relocated some manufacturing, U.S. imports from Vietnam are also subject to a 10% tariff, and policy uncertainty continues to cloud long-term planning.
The retail response has varied. Some merchants are pre-buying inventory ahead of potential levies, while others are cutting or holding prices to maintain share. Target and Home Depot are renegotiating supplier terms, while brands like RH and Ana Luisa have raised prices. Meanwhile, Nintendo delayed preorders for its upcoming Switch 2 console after early pricing drew pushback.
The impact extends beyond consumer brands. Investors in private markets may see slower deal flow and more structured terms, PitchBook said, with sellers pausing IPOs, mergers, or funding talks amid policy volatility. Deal structures are expected to include more earnouts, preferred equity, and minority protections as risk grows.
Ecommerce platforms and technology vendors face a bifurcated outlook. Some may delay or cancel new contracts, while others will double down on automation and AI to manage rising input costs. Bellomo noted that Shopify’s recent AI push is indicative of a larger shift: “Reflexive AI usage is now a baseline expectation.”
PitchBook estimates the average U.S. household could lose $3,800 this year due to cumulative tariffs and retaliation. Broader economic effects may include a 0.9% hit to U.S. GDP, according to analysis cited from the Tax Foundation and the Budget Lab.
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