Google’s recent advertising antitrust loss is much ado about nothing for small- and medium-sized businesses.
On April 17, 2025, U.S. District Judge Leonie Brinkema found that Google had “willfully acquired and maintained monopoly power” in two digital advertising markets: display ad servers and ad exchanges.
Google offers these technologies in Ad Manager, its advertising management platform, once called DoubleClick for Publishers. Ad servers enable advertisers to upload ads and show them on third-party websites. Google’s ad exchange, AdX, is a marketplace where advertisers and publishers buy and sell inventory.
Significance
The loss is significant for Google. It marks the third time the U.S. Department of Justice has won an antitrust ruling in district court against Alphabet, Google’s parent company. The cases are at various appeal phases and include a $700 million fine for alleged Play Store violations, the potential divestiture of Chrome for monopolizing “queries on the internet,” i.e., search, and now for ad tech.
It is also significant because Google Ad Manager — the ad server and AdX — is far and away the most popular advertising platform for enterprise-level publishers such as NBCUniversal, Disney, and Hearst.
This illustration from the DOJ’s filing against Google shows the three parts of Google’s ad business: ad servers on the left, the ad exchange in the middle, and ad buying tools on the right. Click image to enlarge.
In fact, according to the 2023 DOJ filing that initiated the case, Google had a 90% share of the ad server market and a 50% share for AdX.
Thus it’s not surprising that many in the industry predict seismic changes in how digital display ads are bought, sold, and served.
Little Change for SMBs
Despite the hubbub, there are at least three reasons this ad-focused antitrust case will have a minimal impact on smaller brands, including retail, direct-to-consumer, and B2B.
Google’s appeal
Google will almost certainly appeal the ruling, which could take months or years and prevent meaningful changes to Ad Manager or digital advertising generally.
During the appeal, Google’s lawyers have a strong argument.
The DOJ had initially claimed that Google had a complete ad tech monopoly over ad servers, ad exchanges, and the tools used for buying ads. But the court did not agree, stating that Google did not control the online ad buying despite the dominance of Google Ads.
Hence the very advertising tool many ecommerce SMBs use (Google Ads) is not included in the ruling and likely won’t change much, even if Google loses other aspects of the case.
Multiple platforms
Rarely does an ecommerce marketing team depend solely on Google Ads for paid traffic. Most invest in Google Ads, Meta Ads, and others, such as X, Reddit, and Pinterest.
Thus any court-mandated changes to Google Ads (via an Ad Manager ruling) would represent only a portion of most advertisers’ activities.
Moreover, Google announced on April 22, 2025, that Chrome will not include a “user choice” prompt for third-party cookies. The proposed prompt had been part of the company’s Privacy Sandbox initiative. European Union regulators had expressed concerns that the Privacy Sandbox would give Google a monopoly over ad targeting.
Third-party tracking cookies remain largely functional in Chrome.
Unbroken
The courts could force Google to sell its ad-serving capabilities or AdX — or not.
The very publishers the court sought to protect are dependent on a stable and predictable supply of advertisers. Any rapid or destructive change to the ad tech status quo would significantly harm these companies.
Many industry observers predict a legal outcome of fines and rules. The rules might transfer some control to Ad Manager’s competitors and require Google to share its ad technology.
So, again, Google’s antitrust outcome won’t likely change how SMBs buy ads.
Ad prices won’t fluctuate much either. Some reports have stated AdX charges a 30% fee per transaction. Yet all ad exchanges impose fees, often 50% or more.
In short, don’t expect a drop in ad prices.