U.S. economic growth will slow to 1.6% this year from 2.8% last year as President Donald Trump’s erratic trade wars disrupt global commerce, drive up costs and leave businesses and consumers paralyzed by uncertainty.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecast Tuesday that the U.S. economy—the world’s largest—will slow further to just 1.5% in 2026. Trump’s policies have raised average U.S. tariff rates from around 2.5% when he returned to the White House to 15.4%, highest since 1938, according to the OECD. Tariffs raise costs for consumers and American manufacturers that rely on imported raw materials and components.
World economic growth will slow to just 2.9% this year and stay there in 2026, according to the OECD’s forecast. It marks a substantial deceleration from growth of 3.3% global growth last year and 3.4% in 2023.
The world economy has proven remarkably resilient in recent years, continuing to expand steadily—though unspectacularly—in the face of global shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
But global trade and the economic outlook have been clouded by Trump’s sweeping taxes on imports, the unpredictable way he’s rolled them out and the threat of retaliation from other countries.
Reversing decades of U.S. policy in favor of freer world trade, Trump has levied 10% taxes—tariffs—on imports from almost every country on earth along with specific duties on steel, aluminum and autos. He’s also threatened more import taxes, including a doubling of his tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%.
Without mentioning Trump by name, OECD chief economist Álvaro Pereira wrote in a commentary that accompanied the forecast that “we have seen a significant increase in trade barriers as well as in economic and trade policy uncertainty. This sharp rise in uncertainty has negatively impacted business and consumer confidence and is set to hold back trade and investment.”
Adding to the uncertainty over Trump’s trade wars: A federal court in New York last week blocked most of Trump’s tariffs, ruling that he’d overstepped his authority in imposing them. Then an appeals court allowed the Trump administration to continue collecting the taxes while appeals worked their way through the U.S. courts.
China—the world’s second-biggest economy—is forecast to see growth decelerate from 5% last year to 4.7% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026. Chinese exporters will be hurt by Trump’s tariffs, hobbling an economy already weakened by the collapse of the nation’s real estate market. Some of the damage will be offset by help from the government: Beijing last month outlined plans to cut interest rates and encourage bank lending as well as allocating more money for factory upgrades and elder care, among other things.
The 20 countries that share the euro currency will collectively see economic growth pick up from 0.8% last year to 1% in 2025 and 1.2% next year, the OECD said, helped by interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank.
The Paris-based OECD, comprising 38 member countries, works to promote international trade and prosperity and issues periodic reports and analyses.
—Paul Wiseman, AP Economics Writer