If I Could Only Buy and Hold a Single Stock, This Would Be It | The Motley Fool

Owning just a single stock is not a great strategy. Indeed, experts agree: It’s best to own a diversified portfolio of stocks to insulate yourself from market volatility and the pitfalls that any company — even the great ones — experience from time to time.

That said, if I could own only a single stock, I know which one I would choose: Netflix (NFLX 1.83%). Here’s why.

An appealing, long-term strategy

According to recent reporting from The Wall Street Journal, Netflix executives have outlined a detailed plan aimed at raising Netflix’s market cap to over $1 trillion by 2030. As of this writing, Netflix’s market cap is $504 billion, meaning the company would need to roughly double its stock price of around $1,200 to break into the $1 trillion club.

It’s an ambitious goal and one that will require significant growth in the company’s key metrics. Its subscriber base will have to expand, along with the fees it charges those subscribers. In addition, the company will need to generate more money from advertising and perhaps tap new business segments like gaming.

In turn, revenue, net income, and free cash flow will have to surge. According to the Journal‘s reporting, company executives are hoping to double Netflix’s annual revenue to around $78 billion by 2030. Furthermore, they expect to generate nearly $9 billion of this revenue from advertising. However, it’s unclear how much Netflix currently generates from ads, although some analysts estimate it to be around $2 billion.

In other words, Netflix has plenty of work to do. Yet, I do think the company is more than capable of hitting these lofty goals and delivering significant gains to shareholders. Here’s why.

Netflix is a proven winner

To put things bluntly: Netflix is the best streaming service provider — period. And that’s saying something. Many companies have taken a run at Netflix over the last decade: Walt Disney, Apple, Amazon, Comcast, Paramount Global, and Warner Brothers Discovery. Yet, despite all this competition, Netflix hasn’t just survived, it’s thrived.

The company’s stock has surged by an eye-popping 1,200% over the last decade. That works out to a mouth-watering compound annual growth rate of 30%. That’s easily the best among its entertainment industry peers. In fact, it’s even better than tech giants like Apple and Amazon, too.

NFLX data by YCharts

The truth of the matter is this: Netflix has shown that it can outcompete others thanks to several key competitive advantages:

• Subscriber growth: Netflix has managed to grow its customer base to over 300 million thanks to its massive content library and algorithmic recommendations that keep people coming back for more.
• Pricing power: Even though Netflix has significantly increased its prices over the last decade, user churn has remained minimal, making it easy to grow its overall subscriber base.
• Original content and live events: Netflix continues to produce original content that generates buzz, like Squid Game, Wednesday, Bridgerton, and Stranger Things. The company is also expanding into live events, including sports and gaming.

The final word

To sum up, Netflix is the best at what it does, and its management has put forth an aggressive goal to double its revenue and market cap within the next five years. That’s a great sign for investors, as it signals that the company is aiming high.

However, like any stock, there are risks to owning Netflix. Its monumental goals are just that: goals. There’s no guarantee the company will hit the mark. If subscriber growth cools or if consumers are unwilling to shoulder further price increases, the company’s fundamentals — and its stock price — could stall.

That said, I remain bullish on Netflix. It has become entrenched in many people’s mind as the name in video streaming and is now part of their daily routine. In my opinion, the company will continue to achieve its goals, rewarding shareholders in the process. That’s why it’s my pick if I could only own one stock.