Key takeaways:
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LTC’s spot cumulative volume delta flipped positive for the first time since December 2024, signaling a positive shift in market sentiment.
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A potential LTC ETF could trigger institutional investor demand and align with its historically strong Q4 performance.
Litecoin (LTC) has slipped below the $90 mark, and while the price action may appear weak, several fundamental and onchain indicators suggest the tide could soon turn in favor of the bulls.
One bullish trend shift can be identified from the 90-day Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), which gauges the balance between market buy and sell pressure. After remaining negative and at times neutral since December 2024, the Spot CVD flipped positive on June 28. This shift signals a return to a “taker buy dominant” phase, suggesting that market participants are stepping in to buy LTC at current prices.
The positive sentiment around a potential LTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) could be fueling the bullish case. Cointelegraph reported that Bloomberg’s ETF analysts believe there’s a 95% chance that an LTC ETF, alongside SOL and XRP ETFs, could receive SEC approval by Oct. 2, 2025. A successful approval would be a historic milestone for the altcoin, possibly unlocking institutional investors and broader retail exposure.
However, seasonality might dampen short-term expectations. Data shows that August and September are historically the weakest months for LTC, posting negative returns of 6.99% and 5.06% on average since 2012. However, this is typically followed by a significant turnaround in the Q4, with November being the best-performing month historically for LTC with 94.79% returns on average.
If approval is granted, the ETF decision coincides with the seasonal pivot in LTC’s performance, setting the stage for a potential rally. Combined with the ongoing shift in onchain buyer behavior, current price weakness may be less of a warning sign and more of a strategic accumulation zone.
Related: SOL ETF news gain evaporates, while chart warns of another 20% drop
LTC daily chart echoes of 2024 Setup
LTC’s current price structure is mirroring its 2024 trajectory. After a strong Q1 rally earlier this year, LTC entered a correction phase and remained suppressed below a descending trendline throughout Q2.
The price has retested a high-conviction daily demand zone (highlighted in orange), which previously acted as a base for a breakout in Q4 2024.
A steady accumulation within this demand zone could trigger another rally. In late Q3 last year, LTC broke above the descending trendline and reclaimed the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a key confirmation of bullish strength. This led to a sustained rally to new yearly highs in Q4.
A breakout above the trendline and bullish reclaim of these moving averages would provide strong technical validation for upside continuation heading into Q4 2025.
Related: Bitcoin squeezes shorts in $108K spike as US jobs drop most in 2 years
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.