Groundhog Day arrived on Sunday, Feb. 2, and Punxsutawney Phil, the most famous groundhog prognosticator, saw his shadow, thus predicting six more weeks of winter weather. Boooo, say those of us already sick of the cold. But there are some questions about Phil’s accuracy. In fact, an opposum named Sand Mountain Sam in Boaz, Alabama predicted an early spring this year, when he didn’t see his shadow. Just how accurate are these animal prognosticators, anyway?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration checked Punxsutawney Phil’s track record last year and found the fuzzy ambassador’s predictions lacking. This year, NOAA took a deeper dive into Groundhog Day results and graded the work of 19 groundhogs and groundhog surrogates to determine the accuracy of their predictions. Spoiler: Phil came in 17th.
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A groundhog nibbles on some vegetation in Virginia.
NOAA ranks the groundhogs
NOAA set a few ground rules. The groundhogs and “alternative groundhogs” must have been prognosticating for at least 20 years and must also have been active as of Feb. 2, 2024. The competitors included 13 groundhogs, three taxidermied groundhogs, one never-seen creature presumed to be a groundhog, a prairie dog statue and a tortoise.
NOAA used data from its National Centers for Environmental Information, which maintains an archive of ocean, weather and climate data. The agency compared the groundhogs’ track records with US March temperature averages from 2005 to 2024.
All hail Staten Island Chuck, a woodchuck at the Staten Island Zoo in New York City. Chuck, also known as Charles G. Hogg, topped the rankings with 85% accuracy. He famously bit the mayor in 2009 when Michael Bloomberg attempted to coax him out for a Groundhog Day ceremony.
The next-best groundhog was General Beauregard Lee from the Dauset Trails Nature Center in Jackson, Georgia with 80% accuracy. Third place belongs to Lander Lil, a bronze statue of a prairie dog in Lander, Wyoming. Lander Lil came in at 75% accuracy. Groundhogs don’t live in Wyoming, but prairie dogs do. The prognostication principles are the same. If Lander Lil “sees” a shadow on Groundhog Day, then more winter is expected.
How Punxsutawney Phil fared
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Mojave Max is a desert tortoise like the one pictured here in a National Park Service image.
Overall, 14 of the groundhogs had 50% accuracy or better. Poor Punxsutawney Phil managed only 35% accuracy, landing him near the bottom of the rankings. At least he’s more accurate than Mojave Max, a desert tortoise at the Springs Preserve in Nevada who took the last spot with 25% accuracy.
The ranking might not be fair to Mojave Max, though. The tortoise doesn’t get paraded around on Groundhog Day. His predictions are based on when he emerges from brumation (like hibernation for reptiles). Max gets up sometime between February and April each year.
“Warmer temperatures, longer daylight hours and his own internal clock are factors known to contribute to his emergence every year,” the Clark County Desert Conservation program said. His appearance marks the unofficial start of spring for southern Nevada.
Groundhog Day has been a tradition at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania since the late 1800s and it’s still going strong. NOAA’s debunking of woodchuck weather forecasting doesn’t detract from the fun of the celebration. What Phil lacks in accuracy he makes up for in sheer fame, cuteness and charisma. So go ahead and cheer for Phil, but maybe base your spring plans on a rodent from Staten Island rather than Punxsutawney.