Ecommerce now accounts for 23% of total U.S. retail sales and is growing twice as fast as overall retail, according to a new report from Forrester Research.
The report, The Future of Commerce (US), outlines how digital technology, evolving consumer behaviors, and artificial intelligence are accelerating the shift toward “intelligent commerce.” Forrester predicts that transformation will fundamentally reshape the global economy by 2040.
Forrester also emphasizes that the evolution of commerce is being driven by consumers across generations. While Gen Z and Gen Alpha rely on mobile and social media to inform purchases, Gen X continues to value product sentiment and trust, often using desktop for high-consideration items. Still, some fundamentals persist.
According to Forrester’s 2024 consumer data:
- 76% of U.S. online adults prioritize free shipping
- 45% value no-hassle returns
- 34% cite final product price as key factors when choosing where to buy
Convenience plays a significant role, according to Forrester. 51% of U.S. online adults have purchased online and picked up in-store in the past three months, often to avoid delivery costs. Content is equally critical. More than 75% of Gen Z and Millennials say ratings and reviews on a retailer’s website influence trust and purchase decisions. Meanwhile, social validation matters, too. 39% of U.S. online adults want to see testimonials or reviews on social media platforms, Forrester says.
Changing trends in ecommerce retail sales
Brand values have declined as a direct purchase driver, dropping to 12% in 2023 from 18% in 2021, but community and culture still influence buying. Forrester notes that 31% of U.S. online adults think it’s “cool” to be associated with a brand on social media, while 43% see social as a direct channel to voice their opinions.
On the business side, Forrester reports that growth has slowed across much of the retail sector. Among 67 tracked retailers, average year-over-year growth was just 3.3% in 2024. To expand revenue and margins, many companies are investing in retail media networks and online marketplaces. Walmart’s retail media business, for example, reached $2.94 billion in 2023. And Walmart’s marketplace ad revenue grew 26% year over year.
Retailers must also balance expensive digital investments with the continued importance of physical stores. Forrester projects that by 2029, 71% of U.S. retail sales will still take place in-store, as nearly half of online adults prefer to see or touch products before buying. Store pickup also helps offset delivery costs and supports omnichannel strategies.
Forrester also highlights challenges with personalization. Although 69% of B2C marketers are investing in first-party data, 33% of consumers say they never want personalized interactions, complicating efforts to build meaningful engagement.
Omnichannel efforts also lag expectations. Only 21% of B2C leaders say improving omnichannel experiences is a top priority, despite rising consumer demand for seamless cross-device shopping.
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