Other filings suggested a recession could come even earlier. The community bank Hanmi Bank, under its holding company Hanmi Financial Corp., said in an SEC filing that “the combination of tariffs, rising inflation, deportations, global political unrest and tensions, and reduced credit availability” could cause “a mild recession in 2025.”
Some companies said that deportations could fuel labor shortages. Century Communities, a homebuilding company, said in its 2024 annual report that if it’s unable to hire enough skilled tradesmen and contractors, it “may have a material adverse effect on our standards of service.”
“Labor shortages may be caused by, among other factors, slowing rates of immigration and/or increased deportations since a substantial portion of the construction labor force is made up of immigrants,” the filing says.
A few companies mentioned deportations but said that they aren’t sure how the crackdown will impact their business. The holding companies for banks Bridgewater Bancshares, Heartland Bank and Trust Company, and Heritage Bank, for example, mention mass deportations in a list of factors that could affect their “forward looking statements,” which predict how well the banks may perform in the coming months. However, the companies stopped short of saying whether deportations would harm or help their businesses.
Other companies said that deportations present some risk to the economy but noted they do not expect it to cause widespread damage or hurt their business.
In a filing for Forum Investment Group’s real estate income fund, the firm said that “stricter immigration controls and deportations” could have mixed outcomes. The filing claims these policies could increase inflation, but possibly be a “boon for U.S. workers (higher wages)” or cool down “overheated housing markets.”
Some companies argued that their businesses could be at risk if their customers are affected by deportations. Pacific Airport Group, which operates through airports in Mexico and Jamaica, said that policies like mass deportations and restrictions on international travel would hugely impact airport traffic, and therefore the company’s bottom line.
“These measures could create uncertain economic conditions in Mexico, affecting leisure, visiting friends and relatives, and business travel, to and from the country,” the filing says.
Meanwhile, the cloud communications and financial services company IDT Corporation said that mass deportations could “negatively impact” its enterprise customers, like the remittance transfer service BOSS Money, and the money transfer and international call servicing company BOSS Revolution. Anything that disrupts people’s ability to work or travel outside their country of origin, IDT claimed, could hurt customers and therefore its business.
The discount store chain Pricesmart, which operates throughout Central America, said that mass deportations could have a devastating effect on an entire region. If there’s a major reduction in foreign workers sending money to their families in Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Honduras, those nations’ economies would suffer and so would Pricesmart stores, the filing said. Money from foreign workers, the company warns, is “a key source of income and poverty alleviation for millions of families.”