Adobe expects US online sales to reach $253.4 billion this holiday season (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2025), which represents 5.3% growth, year-over-year. The company analyzes direct transactions online, covering over 1 trillion visits to US retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories.
Adobe predicts mobile devices will drive a record 56.1% of online spend to $142.7 billion, up 8.5% year-over-year. It noted that during the 2020 holiday season, mobile accounted for 40% of online spending.
Last year, there were 7 days when consumers spent over $5 billion daily; this year Adobe predicts that number to rise to 10 days. Cyber Week (the 5-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday) is expected to drive 17.2% of overall spend this season, at $43.7 billion (up 6.3% year-over-year).
Adobe also said consumers are increasingly using generative AI-powered chat services and browsers to conduct research before making a purchase. In an Adobe survey of 5,000 US consumers, over one-third reported having used an AI-powered service for online shopping, with top use cases including research (53% of respondents), product recommendations (40%), finding deals (36%), and gift inspiration (30%).
Adobe expects consumers to use AI services most for certain categories including toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care. It saw the first material surge in AI traffic to US retail sites (measured by shoppers clicking on a link) during the 2024 season, with traffic increasing 1,300% year-over-year. For the 2025 season, Adobe expects AI traffic to rise by 520% year-over-year, peaking in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving.
Adobe expects significant discounts this holiday season – up to 28% off listed price – that are on par with the 2024 season. The deepest discounts are expected to land throughout Cyber Week, with Cyber Monday being “last call” for the best deals. The Adobe website has the full report.
