Binance-Led Selling Pressures Bitcoin, But ‘Uptober’ May Soon Flip the Script

Despite the current selling pressure, CryptoQuant sees only a short-term dip before Bitcoin’s late-October rebound historically kicks in.

Bitcoin suffered a fresh decline of 2% over the past 24 hours, falling below $111,000 on Friday. The ongoing market decline is being primarily driven by Binance-led selling pressure, said CryptoQuant.

The company’s analysts, however, believe this represents a short-term correction rather than the end of the broader bull cycle.

Bears Dominate in Short-Term

Three crucial indicators – the Coinbase Premium, Funding Rate, and Taker Buy/Sell Ratio – collectively highlight this market behavior. The US buying activity appears to be strong, as evidenced by the Coinbase Premium, which remains positive. Despite this, Bitcoin’s price continues to falter, which means that selling on Binance is overpowering US-based demand.

Meanwhile, Binance’s Funding Rate has stayed negative for four straight days, even as most other exchanges record positive rates, revealing that futures traders on the platform are betting on short-term downside moves. In addition to this, the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio has dropped to its lowest level in over a year, as aggression among sellers increased, implying that market order flows are heavily skewed toward liquidation.

While these factors depict Binance’s outsized influence on near-term price action, CryptoQuant argued that the correction appears cyclical rather than structural. Bitcoin’s on-chain fundamentals, such as network activity and long-term holder accumulation, remain strong, and the overall market structure continues to support a bullish outlook.

As such, investors may see a surge in volatility in the short-term as the market digests these developments, but the broader uptrend remains unbroken.

Is ‘Uptober’ Still Alive?

Bitcoin may, in fact, soon regain momentum as October progresses. CryptoQuant data points to a recurring seasonal trend in which BTC often delivers its strongest performance during the latter half of the month. Since 2020, a $100 position in Bitcoin at the start of October has typically grown to around $120-$125 by month’s end. This pattern has been fairly consistent.

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The explanation lies in the fact that during the second half of October, Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have historically declined by 0.5-1% as investors withdraw BTC into self-custody or long-term storage. This contraction in sellable supply tightens market liquidity, which makes prices more sensitive to renewed buying pressure.

Early in the month, price action is usually shaped by short-term traders, but as the month unfolds, long-term holders resume accumulation, which boosts positive sentiment and sparks the so-called “Uptober” effect.

At the same time, stablecoin issuance tends to rise, which means that new capital is flowing into the crypto ecosystem and increasing market demand. These factors together create favorable conditions for late-month rallies.