Why Bitwise Expects New Bitcoin Highs in 2026—And the End of the 4-Year Cycle – Decrypt

Crypto investment firm and index fund manager Bitwise thinks Bitcoin will hit new all-time highs again in 2026, even after falling into a rut over the last two months.

The firm is predicting that the leading crypto asset will buck the trend of previous four-year cycles thanks to the diminishing strength of previous cycle indicators, and burst through to a new high mark above $126,080—its current all-time high set in early October.

“Bitcoin has historically moved in a four-year cycle, with three significant ‘up’ years followed by a sharp pullback year. According to this cycle, 2026 should be a pullback year,” Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan wrote. 

“We don’t see that happening,” he continued. “In our view, the forces that previously drove four-year cycles—the Bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and crypto’s leverage-fueled booms and busts—are significantly weaker than they’ve been in past cycles.”

Hougan also noted the continuing momentum of institutional capital that has been entering crypto since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and regulatory tailwinds as reasons BTC is set to find new highs. 

“We expect the combination of these factors will push Bitcoin to new all-time highs, relegating the four-year cycle to history’s dustbin,” he added. 

BTC was recently changing hands at $87,800, up 2% over the last 24 hours but down more than 30% from its all-time high mark.

Despite its swing to new highs in 2025, over the course of the last year, the largest crypto asset by market cap is actually down nearly 18% according to data from CoinGecko. 

Meanwhile, traditional equity indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are up 14.5% and 12%, respectively, over the same time period. 

Bitwise expects that correlation to deviate further in 2026 as well, once more citing regulatory progress and institutional adoption as reasons that Bitcoin’s correlation to the stock market will fall. The firm also predicted that Bitcoin, a historically volatile asset, will be less volatile than leading AI stock, Nvidia—the world’s largest publicly traded company by market cap.

Combining those predictions with the end of the four-year cycle gives investors the “trifecta” of strong returns, less volatility, and lower correlations, in Bitwise’s view.

Other notable predictions from the firm’s 2026 outlook include crypto equities outperforming tech stocks, half of Ivy League endowments making crypto investments, and new highs for Ethereum and Solana as well—but only if the CLARITY Act passes.

The firm expects the pair of layer-1 blockchains to benefit most from tokenization and stablecoins, crypto functions it calls “megatrends” that would be further solidified if the U.S. CLARITY Act, sometimes called the market structure bill, provides clear guidance on crypto regulation.